Italian government-formation talks start in uncertainty

The new-born Italian XVIII parliamentary-term comes to the first turning point, on Wednesday and Thursday. President Sergio Mattarella will begin, at Quirinale Palace in Rome, the first round of talks with parties and political groups in order to understand their chances to create a cabinet.

In line with Constitution, practice and etiquette, Mattarella will receive the political leader and the two Parliament Whip of each party. The most important talks will take place on Thursday, when the President will receive leaders of League, Forza Italia, Democratic Party and 5-Star Movement.

After the general elections of March 4th, which did not grant to any coalition the seats needed to create and operate a government autonomously, the first act of the Italian Parliament has been the election of Presidents for its two parts. In both of them, after some days of talks, a convergence has been found between the centre-right coalition led by Matteo Salvini’s League (with Silvio Berlusconi still quite powerful) and the 5-Star Movement, the outsider of Italian politics, led by Luigi Di Maio.

This brand-new block brought the nomination of Elisabetta Alberti Casellati (member of Silvio Berlusconi’s Forza Italia) as President of the Senate and 5-Star Movement’s Roberto Fico for the Chamber of Deputies. The Democratic Party, which suffered the worst result since its inception, deliberately chose to not take part in any talks with other political groups.

Now, the talks for starting a cabinet will be probably very different and harder. 5-Star Movement would be open to talk with League and Democratic Party, but essentially vetoing on any participation of Forza Italia in the government, Luigi Di Maio said. Indeed, the 5-Star electorate would never stand Silvio Berlusconi’s upteenth political rehabilitation. Furthermore, the Movement’s MPs would endorse only Luigi Di Maio as Prime Minister.

The League, after becoming the most voted party in the centre-right coalition, is now between in the crossfire. On one side, there is the chance of keeping the coalition united, trying to start a government with its natural allies, Forza Italia and Fratelli d’Italia. In this case, however, an agreement with Democrats will be necessary.

On the other side, League could break any relation with Berlusconi, trying to be the minority partner of a 5-Star cabinet.

The Democratic Party, even if badly defeated, could play a key role in this alliances. The party, with its interim leader Maurizio Martina, is right now set on the policy prompted by the former leader Matteo Renzi, namely to not give any support both to centre-right or 5-Star Movement. Instead, some Democrats MPs are more open to seek contact points with 5-Star Movement, fearing an even worse defeat in case President Sergio Mattarella decide to solve the impasse convening new general elections.

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“Hard Brexit”, l’economia di Londra rischia una frenata da 22 miliardi

Londra e il suo epicentro finanziario, la City, rischiano di pagare un conto salatissimo in caso di una Hard Brexit (una uscita dalla UE senza accordi), fino alla cifra record di 22 miliardi di Sterline.

È quanto affermano il centro studi CEBR, in uno report pubblicato martedì e commissionato dalla Camera di Commercio londinese, e la Bank of England, tramite il Financial Policy Committee.

Per CEBR, ad impattare maggiormente sarebbe la dipendenza della capitale inglese dai servizi finanziari, per i quali il continente europeo rappresenta un mercato primario.

La cifra di 22 miliardi di pound deriverebbe da una perdita del 5,5% di output nell’arco di 15 anni.

Gli autori sottolineano che l’effetto potrebbe essere mitigato da accordi commerciali in grado di assicurare un futuro all’economia della capitale al termine del periodo di transizione, attualmente fissato al dicembre 2020.

Il capo della Camera di Commercio, Colin Stanbridge, ha affermato che nel mondo del business l’incertezza è ancora massima e la possibilità di una frenata della crescita esiste.

Analogamente, la banca centrale fa sapere che per determinati servizi finanziari, come derivati e contratti assicurativi, le banche e le istituzioni inglesi potrebbero non avere le necessarie autorizzazioni per operare all’estero.

La BoE si rivolge quindi alle autorità di regolamentazione dei mercati, sia europee che britanniche, affinché lavorino insieme per risolvere la questione. In totale sarebbero a rischio fino a 48 milioni di polizze tra UE e Regno Unito.

Source: London Evening Standard by Jonathan Prynn